Mushure mekuyedzwa kweAfrican swine fever neEast African locust plague, denda idzva recrown pneumonia riri kuwedzera dambudziko remitengo yechikafu pasi rose uye dambudziko rekuwanikwa kwezvinhu, uye rinogona kukurudzira shanduko dzisingaperi muchikamu chekugoverwa kwezvinhu.
Kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwevashandi kunokonzerwa nechirwere chitsva che crown pneumonia, kukanganiswa kwehurongwa hwekugovera zvinhu uye matanho ekuvharwa kwehupfumi zvichakanganisa kuwanikwa kwechikafu pasi rose. Mabasa ehurumende mamwe ekurambidza kutengeswa kwezviyo kunze kwenyika kuti zvigutse zvinodiwa nevemuno anogona kuita kuti mamiriro acho ezvinhu awedzere kuipa.
Mumusangano wepaindaneti wakarongwa neGlobalization Think Tank (CCG), Matthew Kovac, mukuru weFood Industry Association of Asia (FIA), akaudza mutori wenhau weChina Business News kuti dambudziko renguva pfupi rekutengesa zvinhu itsika dzekutenga vatengi. Shanduko idzi dzakakanganisa indasitiri yechinyakare yekubika; nekufamba kwenguva, makambani makuru ezvekudya anogona kuita kugadzirwa kwezvikamu zvakasiyana.
Nyika dzine urombo hwakanyanya kukanganiswa
Sekureva kwedata rakaburitswa neWorld Bank munguva pfupi yapfuura, nyika makumi mashanu dzakanyanya kubatwa nechirwere chekorona dzinoita avhareji ye66% yezvekudya zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Mugove wacho unobva pa38% yezvirimwa zvekuzvivaraidza zvakaita sefodya kusvika pa75% yemafuta emhuka nemiriwo, michero mitsva nenyama. Kutengeswa kwezvekudya zvemazuva ano zvakaita sechibage, gorosi nemupunga kunoenderanawo nenyika idzi.
Nyika dzinorima zvirimwa zvakawanda dziri kutarisanawo nematambudziko makuru kubva mudenda iri. Semuenzaniso, Belgium ndeimwe yedzinotengesa mbatatisi dzakawanda pasi rose. Nekuda kwekuvharirwa kwemutemo uyu, Belgium haina kungorasikirwa nekutengesa nekuda kwekuvharwa kwemaresitorendi emuno, asi kutengesa kune dzimwe nyika dzemuEurope kwakamiswawo nekuda kwekuvharirwa kwemutemo uyu. Ghana ndeimwe yedzinotengesa cocoa dzakawanda pasi rose. Vanhu pavakanyanya kutarisa pakutenga zvinodiwa panzvimbo pechokoreti panguva yedenda iri, nyika yakarasikirwa nemisika yese yeEurope neAsia.
Nyanzvi yezvehupfumi yeWorld Bank, Michele Ruta, nevamwe vakataura mumushumo uyu kuti kana kurwara kwevashandi pamwe nekudiwa kwavo panguva yekusawirirana zvichikanganisa kuwanikwa kwezvigadzirwa zvekurima zvinoda vashandi vakawanda, ipapo mushure mechirwere. Muchikamu chegore chino, kuwanikwa kwechikafu chepasi rose kunogona kuderedzwa ne6% kusvika 20%, uye kuwanikwa kwechikafu chakakosha chekunze kwenyika, kusanganisira mupunga, gorosi nembatatisi, kunogona kuderera neanopfuura 15%.
Sekureva kwekuongorora kweEuropean Union University Institute (EUI), Global Trade Alert (GTA) neWorld Bank, kusvika pakupera kwaKubvumbi, nyika dzinopfuura makumi maviri nenzvimbo dzakaisa mimwe miganhu pakutengeswa kwechikafu kunze kwenyika. Semuenzaniso, Russia neKazakhstan dzakaisa miganhu yekutengeswa kwechikafu kunze kwenyika, uye India neVietnam dzakaisa miganhu yekutengeswa kwechikafu kunze kwenyika. Panguva imwe chete, dzimwe nyika dziri kukurumidza kupinza chikafu kunze kwenyika. Semuenzaniso, Philippines iri kuchengetedza mupunga uye Egypt iri kuchengetedza gorosi.
Sezvo mitengo yezvikafu ichikwira nekuda kwechirwere chitsva che crown pneumonia, hurumende inogona kunge ichishandisa mitemo yekutengeserana kudzikamisa mitengo yemuno. Rudzi urwu rwekuchengetedza chikafu runoita senzira yakanaka yekupa rubatsiro kumapoka ari panjodzi, asi kuitwa panguva imwe chete kwezvirongwa zvakadaro nehurumende dzakawanda kunogona kukonzera mitengo yezvikafu pasi rose kukwira, sezvazvakaitika muna 2010-2011. Sekureva kwefungidziro yeWorld Bank, muchikamu chimwe mushure mekupararira kwedenda rose, kuwedzera kwezvirambidzo zvekutengesa kunze kwenyika kuchakonzera kudzikira kweavhareji kwekutengeswa kwechikafu pasi rose ne40.1%, nepo mitengo yezvikafu pasi rose ichikwira neavhareji ye12.9%. Mitengo mikuru yehove, oats, miriwo negorosi ichakwira ne25% kana kupfuura.
Migumisiro yakaipa iyi inonyanya kutakurwa nenyika dzine urombo. Sekureva kwedata kubva kuWorld Economic Forum, munyika dzine urombo, chikafu chinoita 40%-60% yekudya kwadzo, zvinova ka5-6 kupfuura hupfumi hwakabudirira. Nomura Securities' Food Vulnerability Index iri pakati penyika nematunhu zana negumi zvichibva panjodzi yekuchinja kukuru kwemitengo yezvikafu. Data razvino rinoratidza kuti dzinenge nyika dzese makumi mashanu nenzvimbo dzine njodzi huru yekuwedzera kwemitengo yezvikafu. Hupfumi huri kusimukira hunoita zvikamu zvitatu muzvishanu zvevanhu pasi rose. Pakati padzo, nyika dzakanyanya kukanganiswa dzinovimba nekutenga chikafu kunze kwenyika dzinosanganisira Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Yemen neCuba. Avhareji yemutengo wezvikafu munyika idzi ichakwira ne15% kusvika 25.9%. Kana tichitaura nezvezviyo, mwero wekuwedzera kwemitengo munyika dziri kusimukira uye dzisina kusimukira dzinovimba nechikafu kunze kwenyika uchakwira kusvika pa35.7%.
"Pane zvinhu zvakawanda zvinounza matambudziko kuhurongwa hwezvekudya pasi rose. Pamusoro pedenda riripo, kunewo shanduko yemamiriro ekunze nezvimwe zvikonzero. Ndinofunga zvakakosha kushandisa nzira dzakasiyana-siyana dzekugadzirisa dambudziko iri." Mutungamiriri weInternational Food Policy Research Institute Johan Swinnen akaudza vatori venhau veCBN kuti zvakakosha kuderedza kuvimba nechinhu chimwe chete chekutenga. "Izvi zvinoreva kuti kana ukangowana chikamu chikuru chechikafu kubva kunyika imwe chete, nzira iyi yekupa chikafu nekutumira zvinhu zvinogona kutyisidzirwa. Saka, inzira iri nani yekuvaka portfolio yekudyara kubva kunzvimbo dzakasiyana. "Akadaro."
Maitiro ekusiyanisa cheni yekugovera
Muna Kubvumbi, nzvimbo dzakawanda dzekuurayira mombe muUS uko vashandi vakasimbisa kuti vanhu vakabatwa nechirwere ichi dzakamanikidzwa kuvharwa. Pamusoro pekuderera kwakananga kwe25% muhuwandu hwenguruve, zvakakonzerawo migumisiro isina kunanga yakadai sekunetseka nezvekudiwa kwechikafu chechibage. Chinyorwa che "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Forecast Report" chakabudiswa neDhipatimendi rezvekurima reUS chinoratidza kuti huwandu hwechikafu chakashandiswa muna 2019-2020 hunogona kunge huchisvika 46% yezvinodiwa zvechibage zvemumba muUnited States.
"Kuvharwa kwefekitori kwakakonzerwa nedenda idzva rekorona pneumonia idambudziko guru. Kana ikavharwa kwemazuva mashoma chete, fekitori inogona kudzora kurasikirwa kwayo. Zvisinei, kumiswa kwenguva refu kwekugadzirwa hakungoiti kuti ma processors asashande, asiwo kunoita kuti vatengesi vavo vasave nerugare." Akadaro Christine McCracken, nyanzvi yepamusoro muindasitiri yemapuroteni emhuka yeRabobank.
Kupararira kwechirwere chepneumonia chitsva chekorona kwakakonzera matambudziko akawanda pakudya kwepasi rose. Kubva pakushanda kwemafekitori enyama muUnited States kusvika pakukohwa michero nemiriwo muIndia, mitemo yekufamba nepakati pemiganhu yakakanganisawo kutenderera kwemwaka kwevarimi. Sekureva kweThe Economist, United States neEurope dzinoda vashandi vanopfuura miriyoni imwe chete vanobva kuMexico, North Africa neEastern Europe gore rega rega kuti vagadzirise goho, asi ikozvino dambudziko rekushaikwa kwevashandi riri kuramba richiva pachena.
Sezvo zvichiwedzera kuoma kuti zvigadzirwa zvekurima zvitakurwe kuenda kumafekitori nemisika, mapurazi akawanda anofanira kurasa kana kuparadza mukaka nechikafu chitsva chisingakwanise kutumirwa kumafekitori. Sangano reAgricultural Products Marketing Association (PMA), iro rinoita zvekutengeserana muindasitiri muUnited States, rakati mari inodarika mabhiriyoni mashanu emadhora emichero nemiriwo mitsva yakaparadzwa, uye mamwe mafekitori emukaka akarasa zviuru zvemagaroni emukaka.
Imwe yemakambani makuru ezvekudya nezvinwiwa pasi rose, mutevedzeri wemutungamiri weUnilever R&D, Carla Hilhorst, akaudza vatori venhau veCBN kuti kutengeserana kwezvekudya kunofanirwa kuratidza kuwanda kukuru.
"Tichafanira kukurudzira kuwanda kwezvirimwa zvakawanda uye kupatsanura, nekuti ikozvino kushandiswa kwedu nekugadzirwa kwedu zvinoenderana nesarudzo shoma." Silhorst akati, "Muzvinhu zvedu zvese, pane chigadzirwa chimwe chete here?, Vangani vatengesi varipo, zvinhu zvakagadzirwa kupi, uye ndevapi varipo zvinhu zvakagadzirwa zviri panjodzi huru? Kutanga kubva pamatambudziko aya, tichiri kuda kuita basa rakawanda."
Kovac akaudza vatori venhau veCBN kuti munguva pfupi, kugadziridzwa kwechikamu chekugovera chikafu nedenda idzva rekorona pneumonia kunoratidzwa nekuchinjwa kuri kuitwa nekukurumidza kuenda kukutumira chikafu online, izvo zvakakanganisa zvakanyanya indasitiri yechinyakare yechikafu nezvinwiwa.
Semuenzaniso, kutengeswa kweMcDonald's muEurope kwakadzikira ne70%, vatengesi vakuru vakachinja nzira dzekugovera zvinhu, kugona kweAmazon kutenga zvekudya paindaneti kwakawedzera ne60%, uye Wal-Mart yakawedzera kutsvagwa kwevanhu ne150,000.
Mukufamba kwenguva, Kovac akati: "Mabhizinesi anogona kutsvaga kugadzirwa kwakawanda mune ramangwana. Bhizinesi guru rine mafekitori akawanda rinogona kuderedza kuvimba kwaro nefekitori imwe chete. Kana kugadzirwa kwako kwakabatana nenyika imwe chete, unogona kufunga nezvekusiyana-siyana, senge vatengesi vakapfuma kana vatengi."
"Ndinotenda kuti kumhanya kwemakambani ekugadzira chikafu anoda kuisa mari otomatiki kuchakurumidza. Zviri pachena kuti kuwedzera kwekudyara mari munguva ino kuchakanganisa mashandiro, asi ndinofunga kana ukatarira shure muna 2008 (kuwanikwa kwezvinhu kunokonzerwa nemiganhu yekutengeswa kwechikafu mune dzimwe nyika) Kana paine dambudziko), makambani ezvekudya nezvinwiwa anoda kuisa mari anofanira kunge akaona kukura kwekutengesa, kana kuti zviri nani kupfuura makambani asina kuisa mari." Kovac akaudza mutori wenhau weCBN.
Nguva yekutumira: Kurume-06-2021