Mushure mekuyedzwa kweAfrica swine fever uye denda remhashu dzekuEast Africa, denda idzva remabayo ririkurisa mutengo wepasi rose wezvekudya uye dambudziko rekupa, uye rinogona kukurudzira shanduko yekusingaperi mukutengesa.
Kuwedzera kwezviitiko zvevashandi zvinokonzerwa nekorona itsva pneumonia, kukanganiswa kweketani yekugovera uye matanho ekuvhara hupfumi huchava nemigumisiro yakaipa pakudya kwepasi rose.Zviito zvedzimwe hurumende zvekurambidza kutengeswa kwezviyo kunze kwenyika kuti zvizadzise zvinodiwa mudzimba zvinogona kuita kuti zvinhu zvinyanye kuipa.
Mumusangano wepamhepo wakarongwa neGlobalization Think Tank (CCG), Matthew Kovac, director director weFood Industry Association yeAsia (FIA), akaudza mutori wenhau kubva kuChina Business News kuti dambudziko renguva pfupi rekutengesa kutenga kwevatengi. tsika.Shanduko idzi dzakakanganisa indasitiri yechinyakare yekubika;mukufamba kwenguva, makambani makuru ezvekudya anogona kuita kugadzirwa kwenzvimbo.
Nyika dzine urombo zvikuru ndidzo dzanyanya kurohwa
Zvinoenderana nedatha ichangobva kuburitswa neWorld Bank, nyika makumi mashanu dzakanyanya kukanganiswa nekorona nyowani pneumonia denda revhareji yemakumi matanhatu neshanu muzana ezvekutengesa kunze kwenyika chikafu.Mugove uyu unotangira pa38% pazvirimwa zvekuzvivaraidza zvakaita sefodya kusvika pa75% yemafuta emhuka nemiriwo, michero mitsva nenyama.Kutengeswa kwechikafu chakakura sechibage, gorosi nemupunga zvakare kunoenderana nenyika idzi.
Nyika dziri kurima zvirimwa zvemhando imwe chete dzakatarisanawo nedambudziko rakakura kubva kudenda iri.Semuenzaniso, Belgium ndeimwe yevatengesi vakuru vembatatisi pasi rose.Nekuda kwekuvhara, Belgium haina kungorasikirwa nekutengesa nekuda kwekuvharwa kwemaresitorendi emuno, asi kutengesa kune dzimwe nyika dzeEurope kwakamiswawo nekuda kwekuvhara.Ghana ndeimwe yevatengesi vakuru vecocoa pasi rose.Vanhu pavakatarisa pakutenga zvinodiwa pachinzvimbo chechokoreti panguva yedenda, nyika yakarasikirwa nemisika yese yeEurope neAsia.
Mukuru wezvehupfumi muWorld Bank, Michele Ruta nevamwe vakataura mumushumo kuti kana hurombo hwevashandi uye kudiwa panguva yekudyidzana kuchikanganisa kupihwa kwezvigadzirwa zvekurima zvakanyanya, zvino imwe mushure mekubuda mukati mekota, chikafu chepasi rose chinotengeswa kunze kwenyika. inogona kudzikiswa ne6% kusvika 20%, uye kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwezvakanyanya kukosha zvekudya, zvinosanganisira mupunga, gorosi uye mbatatisi, zvinogona kudonha neinopfuura 15%.
Sekutariswa kwakaitwa European Union University Institute (EUI), Global Trade Alert (GTA) neWorld Bank, mukupera kwaKubvumbi, nyika dzinopfuura makumi maviri nematunhu dzakatemera zvirango zvekutengesa chikafu kunze kwenyika.Semuyenzaniso, Russia neKazakhstan dzakatemesa zvirambidzo zvinoenderana nekutengeswa kunze kwenyika pazviyo, uye India neVietnam dzakatemera zvirambidzo zvinoenderana nekutengesa mupunga.Panguva imwe cheteyo, dzimwe nyika dziri kukurumidza kutenga zvinhu kunze kwenyika kuti dzichengetere zvokudya.Semuenzaniso, Philippines iri kuchengeta mupunga uye Egypt iri kuunganidza gorosi.
Sezvo mitengo yechikafu ichikwira nekuda kwekukanganisa kweiyo koronavirus pneumonia denda, hurumende inogona kuda kushandisa marongero ekutengeserana kudzikamisa mitengo yepamba.Rudzi urwu rwekuchengetedzwa kwechikafu rwunoita senzira yakanaka yekupa zororo kumapoka ari munjodzi, asi kuitwa panguva imwe chete yekupindira kwakadaro nehurumende zhinji kunogona kukonzera mitengo yezvekudya pasi rose kukwira kumusoro, sezvakaitika muna 2010-2011.Zvinoenderana nefungidziro neWorld Bank, mukota inotevera kubuda kwakazara kwedenda, kuwedzera kwezvirambidzo kunze kwenyika kuchakonzera kuderera kweavhareji yekutengeswa kwechikafu pasi rose ne40.1%, ukuwo mitengo yechikafu chepasi rose ichikwira neavhareji ye12.9 %.Mitengo mikuru yehove, oats, miriwo uye gorosi ichakwira ne25% kana kupfuura.
Migumisiro yakaipa iyi ichanyanya kutakurwa nenyika dzine urombo.Maererano nedata kubva kuWorld Economic Forum, munyika dzine urombo zvakanyanya, chikafu chinotora 40% -60% yekushandiswa kwavo, iyo inenge 5-6 nguva yehupfumi hwepamusoro.Nomura Securities' Food Vulnerability Index inosvika zana negumi nenyika nematunhu zvichienderana nenjodzi yekushanduka kukuru kwemitengo yechikafu.Idzi data ichangoburwa inoratidza kuti dzinenge nyika dzese makumi mashanu nematunhu ari panjodzi yekukwira kwakasimba kwemitengo yezvekudya Upfumi huri kusimukira hunoverengera kunosvika zvikamu zvitatu nezvishanu zvehuwandu hwenyika.Pakati padzo, nyika dzakanyanya kutambudzika dzinovimba nekutenga chikafu kunze kwenyika dzinosanganisira Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Yemen neCuba.Avhareji yemutengo wezvekudya munyika idzi uchakwira ne15% kusvika pa25.9%.Nezve zviyo, huwandu hwekuwedzera kwemitengo munyika dzichiri kusimukira uye dzakasimukira dzakasimukira dzinovimba nekutenga chikafu kunze kwenyika huchakwira kusvika pa35.7%.
“Kune zvinhu zvakawanda zvinounza matambudziko kuhurongwa hwezvekudya pasi rose.Pamusoro pedenda riripo parizvino, kunewo shanduko yemamiriro ekunze nezvimwe zvikonzero.Ndinofunga zvakakosha kuti titore masanganiswa akasiyana-siyana emitemo pakubata nedambudziko iri. "Mukuru weInternational Food Policy Research Institute, Johan Swinnen akaudza vatori venhau veCBN kuti zvakakosha kudzikisa kutsamira pane imwechete sosi yekutenga."Izvi zvinoreva kuti kana ukangotora chikamu chikuru chekudya kubva kune imwe nyika, cheni iyi yekugovera uye kuendesa zviri panjodzi yekutyisidzirwa.Naizvozvo, iri nani zano rekuvaka iyo yekuisa mari portfolio kubva kunzvimbo dzakasiyana."Akati.
Nzira yekusiyanisa cheni yekutengesa
Muna Kubvumbi, nzvimbo dzekuuraya dzinoverengeka muUS uko vashandi vaive vasimbisa nyaya vakamanikidzwa kuvhara.Pamusoro pekukanganisa kwakananga kwekuderedzwa kwe25% mukupihwa kwenguruve, zvakakonzerawo zvisina kunanga kukanganisa sekunetsekana pamusoro pekudya kwechibage.Yazvino "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Forecast Report" yakaburitswa neDhipatimendi Rezvekurima reUS inoratidza kuti huwandu hwechikafu hunoshandiswa muna 2019-2020 hunogona kuita 46% yechibage chekumba muUnited States.
“Kuvharwa kwefekitari kwakakonzerwa nedenda idzva remabayo idambudziko guru.Kana ikangovharwa kwemazuva mashoma, fekitari inogona kudzora kurasikirwa kwayo.Nekudaro, kumiswa kwenguva refu kwekugadzira hakungoite kuti ma processor asaite, asi zvakare anoita kuti vatengesi vawo vave mhirizhonga. "Akadaro Christine McCracken, muongorori mukuru muindasitiri yeprotein yemhuka yeRabobank.
Kamwe kamwe kubuda kwekorona nyowani pneumonia kwave nenhevedzano yezvakaomarara mhedzisiro pane yepasi rose chikafu chekudya.Kubva pakushanda kwemafekitari enyama muUnited States kusvika kunhonga michero nemiriwo muIndia, zvirambidzo zvekuyambuka miganhu zvakakanganisawo kutenderera kwevarimi kwemwaka.Maererano neThe Economist, United States neEurope zvinoda vashandi vanopfuura miriyoni vanobva kuMexico, North Africa neEastern Europe gore negore kuti vabate basa rokukohwa, asi iye zvino dambudziko rokushomeka kwevashandi riri kuramba richiva pachena.
Sezvo zvinova zvakanyanya kuoma kuti zvigadzirwa zvekurima zvitakurwe kuenda kune zvinogadzira zvirimwa nemisika, nhamba huru yemapurazi inofanirwa kurasa kana kuparadza mukaka uye chikafu chitsva chisingagoni kutumirwa kunogadzira zvigadzirwa.Agricultural Products Marketing Association (PMA), boka rinotengeserana mumaindasitiri muUnited States, rakati mari inopfuura mabhiriyoni mashanu emadhora emichero nemichero mitsva yakaraswa, uye mamwe mafekitari emukaka akarasa zviuru zvemarita emukaka.
Imwe yemakambani makuru echikafu nezvinwiwa pasi rose, Unilever R&D mutevedzeri wemutungamiri wenyika, Carla Hilhorst, akaudza vatori venhau veCBN kuti cheni yekugovera inofanirwa kuratidza kuwanda.
"Tichafanirwa kusimudzira kuwanda uye kusiyanisa, nekuti iko zvino mashandisiro edu uye kugadzirwa kunoenderana nesarudzo shoma."Silhorst akati, "Pazvinhu zvedu zvese zvekushandisa, pane chigadziko chimwe chete chekugadzira?, Vangani vatengesi varipo, ndekupi izvo zvigadzirwa zvinogadzirwa, uye ndezvipi izvo zvinogadzirwa zvinogadzirwa zvine njodzi yakanyanya?Kutanga nenyaya idzi, tichiri kuda kuita basa rakawanda. "
Kovac akaudza vatori venhau veCBN kuti munguva pfupi, kugadziridzwa kweiyo chikafu chekudya neiyo korona itsva pneumonia denda kunoratidzwa mukukurumidza kuchinjika kwekuendesa chikafu pamhepo, izvo zvakanganisa zvakanyanya indasitiri yechikafu nechinwiwa.
Semuyenzaniso, kukurumidza-chikafu cheni kutengeswa kweMcDonald muEurope kwakadzikira ne70%, vatengesi vakuru vakadzoreredza kugovera, grocery reAmazon e-commerce rekupa simba rakawedzera ne60%, uye Wal-Mart yakawedzera kutora kwayo ne150,000.
Nekufamba kwenguva, Kovac akati: "Mabhizinesi anogona kutsvaga kugadzirwa kwakasarudzika mune ramangwana.Bhizinesi hombe rine mafekitari akawanda rinogona kuderedza kutsamira kwaro kune imwe fekitari.Kana kugadzirwa kwako kwakatarisana muNyika imwe chete, unogona kufunga nezvekusiyana-siyana, senge vatengesi vakapfuma kana vatengi. "
"Ini ndinotenda kuti kumhanya kweautomation emakambani ekugadzira chikafu anoda kuisa mari kuchawedzera.Zviripachena, kuwedzera kwekudyara panguva ino kuchava nemhedzisiro pakuita basa, asi ndinofunga kana iwe ukatarisa kumashure ku2008 (kupa kunokonzerwa nekurambidzwa kwekutengesa kwechikafu kune dzimwe nyika) Kana iri dambudziko), izvo makambani ezvekudya uye zvinwiwa izvo vanoda kuisa mari vanofanira kunge vakaona kukura kwekutengesa, kana zviri nani kupfuura makambani asina kuisa mari. "Kovac akaudza mutori wenhau weCBN.
Nguva yekutumira: Mar-06-2021